Mild but wet winter still ahead

Hold on to those umbrellas and raincoats as the next three months are shaping up to be warmer and wetter than usual across the Coast. 

According to the latest seasonal outlook from NIWA, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions remain in place in the Pacific, with little chance of La Niña returning before the end of the year.

Forecasters expect this will cause lower atmospheric pressure to linger to the northwest of New Zealand. This, combined with tropical and sub-tropical influences, increases the chances of low-pressure systems bringing heavy rain and possible flooding, especially during July through to September.

Rainfall is also expected to be above normal for the north of the North Island while soil moisture levels are also expected to be higher than usual. With the ground already saturated in many places, this increases the risk of  surface flooding during heavy rainfall.

Temperatures are also expected to remain above average nationwide, meaning we can expect fewer cold snaps and frosts than usual. However, this doesn’t rule out the occasional chilly morning and frost.

Sea temperatures off the west coast remain unusually high, continuing a marine heatwave that’s persisted for months, while eastern coastal waters have cooled slightly but are still trending warmer than average.

River flows across most regions are forecast to stay near or above normal, particularly in the north of the South Island.

Stay up to date with forecasts, especially ahead of heavy rain, because of the increased risk of flooding this winter.