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Proposed changes to Auckland’s planning rules could deliver 38,000 additional homes over the next decade, boosting housing supply by 36 per cent compared with current settings, according to new council modelling.
The council’s Chief Economist Unit used the Auckland Housing Supply Model to compare expected housing supply under the revised Plan Change 120 proposal with current Auckland Unitary Plan settings.
The proposal concentrates additional housing capacity in areas with good access to jobs, services and public transport, including around the city centre, metropolitan and town centres, rapid transit stations and frequent transit routes within 10 kilometres of the city centre.
Chief economist Gary Blick said the modelling points to a substantial increase in housing supply if the proposed planning changes are adopted.
“Auckland now has nearly a decade of evidence under the Auckland Unitary Plan. That experience helps us better understand how housing supply may respond to future planning changes.
“The revised proposal is forecast to increase housing supply by around 36 per cent, equivalent to approximately 38,000 additional homes over 10 years, compared with the operative plan.”
The analysis forecasts an average of 14,300 new homes a year under the revised proposal, compared with 10,500 homes a year under current planning settings.
The growth is expected in areas with strong demand and good transport connections.
“The proposal would enable more homes in locations that are already well connected to employment, services and public transport,” said Blick.
“That gives more people the opportunity to live close to the places they need to go every day.
“The value of the model is that it helps move the discussion beyond theoretical development capacity and towards estimating what housing outcomes may occur under different planning scenarios.”
Blick said the modelling suggests increased housing supply could also help ease future affordability pressures.
“When housing supply can respond more readily to demand, it helps reduce upward pressure on house prices. Our estimates suggest prices could be around 3 to 5 per cent lower than they otherwise would be,” he said.
Blick said that the benefits could extend beyond housing, with more residents living closer to jobs and services supporting a more productive city.
“The location of housing matters. Enabling more homes in accessible locations can improve connections between workers, jobs and services, supporting productivity and making better use of existing infrastructure.” .
The analysis estimates Auckland’s regional GDP could be 0.2 to 0.5 per cent higher after a decade under the revised proposal.
The report expresses greater confidence in the overall direction of change, with more housing expected in accessible locations and less upward pressure on house prices than under current planning rules.
Consultation on the proposed changes to Plan Change 120 has closed, with the Independent Hearings Panel set to hear public submissions next.
