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While property values in New Zealand edged down by -0.1 per cent in May, overall Rodney real estate rose by 0.4 per cent, according to the Cotality NZ (formerly CoreLogic) home value index.
Rodney and Franklin remain higher than three months ago, however the rest of Auckland’s sub-markets have seen values drop since February (albeit by only -0.1 per cent in Manukau).
Cotality NZ chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says Auckland is a pretty good example of the wider forces that are playing out across the housing market at present.
“In an environment where lower interest rates are being counteracted by other restraints, the trends for property values remain inconsistent across various time periods and locations.”
Ray White Warkworth licensed agent Mick Fay says he doesn’t know if prices have really gone up, particularly in Warkworth.
“But we’re seeing a lot of activity. With interest rates going down, we’re seeing a lot more people thinking ‘well we’re gonna pay less for their mortgage’. So we’re seeing a lot more people out there and things are selling,” he says.
“It’s still a buyers’ market for sure. There’s a lot of property for sale.”
Fay says that a 0.4 per cent rise isn’t much.
“It’s minimal. What we will never see again are the price increases when covid happened. We saw prices go up about 40 per cent. That was just nuts. And I was selling auctions left, right and centre.
“You had the fear of missing out and very low interest rates. Now housing prices have come back down by around 20 per cent.”
According to Cotality the national median is now at $818,132, which is 16.3 per cent below the January 2022 peak.
“I’ve seen property a long time, and it’ll eventually go back up, but if you’re selling now and you bought at the peak, you’d be in trouble,” Fay says.
Harcourts North Rodney licensed agent Sarah Howlett says she’s observed house prices going up in the area.
“It’s very small, it’s only really a few percentages really. It’s very generalised because there’s a wide variety of houses getting sold up here and some are still not getting to their CV, while others are selling nicely over CV,” she says.
Howlett says when the OCR (Official Cash Rate) drops, it doesn’t necessarily translate into a rush of people buying straightaway.
“It was really quiet over the February to March period, which is normal, and we were seeing a lot of people holding back. In April, people were putting in offers but they were conditional on the sale of their houses, which they tended to struggle to sell.
“Then there was a rush of people being able to make offers in May and a lot of them were unconditional, or at least just standard conditions without needing to sell their house.
“Then as properties sold, we certainly we saw an increase in the prices.
Davidson says there are green shoots across the board.
“Stand-alone houses are perhaps tending to lead the early recovery in terms of both consistency and scale of value gains.
“More affordable detached housing seems to be appealing to buyers again, supported by easing mortgage rates. In contrast, values for townhouses and flats are a bit more hit-and-miss.”
He says that May’s figures were a reminder that any emerging housing upturn could well remain slow and variable for the time being, both from month to month and across regions.
“Lower mortgage rates are clearly going to be bolstering households’ confidence as well as their wallets, and there were signs of higher loan-to-value and debt-to-income ratio lending activity in the latest Reserve Bank figures.”
Davidson adds that housing isn’t necessarily affordable in absolute terms while the economy and labour market remain subdued.
“Indeed, filled jobs edged lower again in April. These are certainly restraints on buyers’ willingness to push ahead with property deals or to pay higher prices.
“May’s drop in values at the national level was fairly trivial and could be reversed next month. But anybody who was anticipating a sharp or widespread increase in property values as we got further into 2025 continues to be disappointed.”
