Volatility and vulnerability in the rural property market

There were 126 fewer farm sales (-38.2%) for the three months ended August 31 than for the same period last year, according to data released by the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ).

Overall, 204 properties changed hands during the three months, compared to 255 farm sales in the three months ended July (-20%) and 330 farm sales for the three months ended August last year.

Of the 1545 farms sold in the year to August, there were 278 fewer than the same time last year – 2.6% more dairy farms, 25.2% fewer dairy support, 21.5% fewer grazing farms, 13.9% fewer finishing farms and 17.5% fewer arable farms.

The median price per hectare for all farms sold in the three months to August was $25,690, compared to $27,170 last year (-5.4%). The median price per hectare decreased by 6.5% compared to July.

Two regions recorded an increase in the number of farm sales during the three months ended August – Manawatu-Whanganui and Southland (+2 sales).

REINZ rural spokesperson Brian Peacocke says sales data for the three-month period ending August reflect a significant reduction in total farm sales compared to the equivalent periods in the previous two years.

“Reasons for such reductions will inevitably be varied but are likely to include an increasing degree of caution, mingled with emerging resentment towards central government, inexorable increases in costs across the board, and widespread volatility in climatic conditions,” Peacocke said.

“Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, Taranaki and the Far North are at the forefront of those regions most impacted by the turbulent extremes in weather being experienced more frequently across the country.

“From a financial perspective, strong levels of income in recent seasons have allowed significant debt reduction across much of the rural sector, albeit erosion of the increased equity due to increases in costs is having a sobering effect across the sector.

“While it appears good levels of income are likely to continue in much of the agricultural sector this season, reports of decreasing levels of production from a national perspective, combined with the aggressive increases in costs, will have a balancing effect.”

Peacocke said other issues of concern in the rural sector included changes in land use driven by forestry, increasing prices for carbon, urban and lifestyle expansion, compliance/environment issues, water regulations, energy generation/solar power and the ban on bobby-calf industry live exports from next year.

In Northland/Auckland, there were good sales of grazing properties, albeit mainly in the lower price range, light activity on finishing properties and no dairy farm sales.

Solid prices were paid for individual finishing and grazing properties in Auckland.