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Despite recent rains, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) meteorologists are forecasting that it will be a dry winter with rainfall not expected to return to typical levels until spring.
Soil moisture and river flows in the north of the North Island are expected to be below average for the season.
Meteorologist Ben Noll says this winter is likely to have atypically long dry periods of around five to seven days without rain.
“We understand that despite some rain, folks are still experiencing very dry conditions across New Zealand,” Mr Noll says.
“That’s the lag between the end of a meteorological drought and the end of a hydrological drought. The rivers and soil moisture are still low. It takes a number of moderate rain events to replenish that.”
Meanwhile, NIWA has released its winter season climate outlook.
Sharp cold snaps were expected during the month of May as fronts moved on to the country from the Tasman Sea and Southern Ocean.
Westerlies will be the prevailing wind direction in the North Island for the next two months, including both north and south westerlies.
Air pressure in the North Island is expected to be higher than normal.
Dry conditions are expected to ease in spring when warm water north of Australia may encourage atmospheric “moisture streams” to move towards New Zealand.
Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are cooler than average, which may mean that La Niña patterns will emerge later in the year.
“These two features could give northern and eastern New Zealand better odds for seasonal rainfall, but not right away,” Mr Noll says.
“New Zealand might begin experiencing these effects during the second half of winter or early spring. In the meantime, longer than normal dry spells will remain possible during the month of June.”
