Seniors’ march north stretches services

A growing number of senior citizens in Mahurangi is raising concerns about the region’s ability to care for its rapidly aging population.

Census data shows the number of people aged over 65 in Rodney increased by 104 per cent between 1996 and 2013, from 4257 to 8691. During the same period the senior population in New Zealand grew by less than half that rate, increasing by 45 per cent.

Rodney Local Board member and Summerset Falls sales manager Steven Garner says the growth has been fuelled by the Auckland property market, as people cash in on the rising prices in the city and retire further north.

“We’ve had a substantial increase inquiries as more people have decided to retire to Warkworth, where they can get better value for their money.”

Population projections from Statistics NZ predict the number of over-65s in Rodney will more than double again in the next 15 years, increasing by 109 per cent to 18,160. While over the same period the senior population in NZ is expected to increase by just 60 per cent.

The growth in the number of seniors is also predicted to outstrip population growth in Rodney, with the proportion of seniors growing from 15.6 per cent in 2013 to 22 per cent in 2030. NZ Aged Care Association deputy chair Max Robins says Rodney is facing the brunt of an aged care crisis, with both a rapidly increasing population and a growing proportion of seniors. The number of aged care facilities needed in Rodney is predicted to increase at more than twice the national rate.

DHB Shared Services (DHBSS) has created a model to predict the future requirements for aged care facilities and it shows Rodney will need to double the number of facilities in the next 15 years (see graph page 24).

Total bed-days in aged care in Rodney are predicted to grow from 98,254 in 2015, to 239,650 in 2030.

Broken down into three categories of aged care – resthomes, hospitals and dementia units – it shows the need for dementia care more than tripling from 11,450 to 31,500 bed-days.

“DHBSS has made these predictions available to people in the sector and there has been a strong increase in bed numbers in the Waitemata DHB, but it’s still not enough,” Mr Robins says.

But unless the funding model changes, the crisis won’t fix itself, he says.

“At the moment it’s just not viable for people to build stand-alone resthomes. They are usually built in tandem with a retirement village, but it’s not enough to meet demand. There could be a real shortage in the near future unless the funding model substantially changes.”

In Warkworth, nearly 200 retirement village and resthome units are planned over the next two years.

Construction of the Oaks on Neville retirement apartments is expected to start this month. The first stage will have 83 independent-living apartments with a 29-bed care centre to be built at a later date.

The development is being built by Real Living Group, which owns retirement villages in Pakuranga, Epsom and Remuera. Group director Chris Murphy agrees that the incentives for building stand-alone resthomes are low.

“The cost of care is significant and with a resthome you don’t get the upfront capital that you do with a village, where people are purchasing a unit, so they take a long time to pay their way.

“However, with retirement villages, you are selling a package and having a care facility on site makes it more attractive.

“Resthomes also have a higher risk due to their reliance on Government subsidies, which can change.”

But Mr Murphy says changes are being made to the funding models of resthomes, which could make them more viable. In Australia, resthomes have begun selling care units, enabling developers to recoup their investment more quickly.

“It’s a relatively new idea in New Zealand. We are in discussion at the moment about having a similar system for the care facilities in the Oaks.”

Summerset Falls retirement village, west of Warkworth, is adding an additional 100 units to its complex, after the company purchased 2.4 hectares adjoining its present site last month.

The village currently has 220 units, including 41 resthome units. A further 36 units are being built in a new apartment complex, which will be completed in March.

A further 77 units are planned on the recently purchased land.

Sales manager Steven Garner says there has been a marked increase in enquiries over the past three years.

“Enquiries are also coming from increasingly older people. The average age of new residents is now about 75.”

But younger people are also opting for village life. A 64-year-old is about to move into the village and has had to get special dispensation because he is under the 65-year-old threshold.