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Auckland and Northland are likely to experience above-average temperatures and below-normal rainfall this spring as a rapidly strengthening El Niño begins to influence New Zealand’s weather.
According to Earth Sciences New Zealand’s Spring Outlook, covering September – November 2026, the event is expected to be one of the strongest El Niños in recent history, with the potential to have significant impacts.
Earth Sciences New Zealand says it is already comparable with the 1997 El Niño and has shown the strongest warming trend on record.
“El Niño is expected to influence spring weather patterns, favouring periods of active westerlies, unusually windy conditions, and greater temperature variability,” the outlook says.
“While these are typical spring features, they are expected to be more pronounced in 2026,” the outlook says.
“The extent and persistence of these conditions will depend on nearby high pressure systems, with the greatest risk of nationwide unsettled weather currently expected during mid-to-late spring.”
For Northland, Auckland, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty, the outlook points to a warmer and drier-than-usual spring.
Temperatures have a 50 percent chance of being above average, while seasonal rainfall totals have a 50 percent chance of falling below normal.
Soil moisture levels and river flows are less certain, with a 45 percent chance of being below normal and a 40 percent chance of remaining near normal.
