Business – Uncertainty is always certain

We seem to be bombarded with the word uncertainty in recent times. It’s often linked to that well-worn phrase “the only constant these days is change.” But hasn’t it always been that way? Hasn’t life always been a bit uncertain? Biologically, our species has adapted to change over the past 150,000 years. We’ve had to change the way we live, work, behave and think in a world of constant flux. We’ve managed it in the past, and we’ve been successful over time, although at the expense of many other species, but that’s another conversation. So why is uncertainty and change such a focus right now?

Maybe we should give thought to the current rate of change. Over the past five years, there have been a few defining events, maybe it’s the sum of those events, over a short space of time, that has caught us out. Continually getting punched in the head makes it harder to get up. 

Business is uncertain – it has always been thus! We don’t start or buy businesses because it’s a stable and relaxing thing to do – well some may, but they quickly come down to earth.  

So what can we do about it? My view is that there are two types of uncertainty in business – known and unknown (I get that “known uncertainty” is somewhat of an oxymoron but stay with me). We know that our economy will affect us in all sorts of ways; we know that we will have people issues from time to time – as sure as the sun rises; we know that our customers and their needs will change, sometimes illogically; we know that our suppliers will always be looking at increasing margins, so our costs and profitability will be under pressure; we know that our markets will mature, demand will fluctuate, competitors will come and go. 

We know all this, so why do we claim uncertainty? Unknown uncertainty is the issue here. We don’t know the consequences of these events. It’s the consequences that are uncertain, not the event. And I continue to see business owners worrying about the event rather than drawing up scenarios around that event, what could happen and how they should respond. It’s called scenario planning. I call it being strategic!  

I hear this assertion every day: “I’m too busy trying to survive day to day to put time into planning a future we may not see.”  

I get that. It’s a reasonable reaction. But that’s all it is, a reaction. Follow this course at your peril. I have tended to become somewhat strident on this topic, as you may have sensed. That comes from seeing the result of not being strategic at a time when it is essential, when you are trying to survive day to day, when you don’t have time for it. That’s when you need to do it more than ever!

Follow the principles of scenario planning – identify a number of scenarios and plan your strategic response to them. It may well save you from the clutches of uncertainty.