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Recently, I have felt a somewhat lonely voice. Despite an array of economic and societal doom from people that should know better or from keyboard warriors that try to fill our heads with negative diatribe and downright lies, I have stood for positivity, recovery, and a light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately, I have come under attack from a few of those peddlers of doom for having the temerity to paint a picture with any light at all.
How does that make me feel? Angry, initially, followed by a calm realisation that to go against the tide can be dangerous. But that won’t stop me. I spend my days mentoring local business owners on how to navigate the brutal facts facing them, but I see more positivity and motivation towards recovery from those directly affected by the toughest recession in my time in business than I see from all the doom merchants put together.
As we near year-end, it is looking hopeful. I know local business owners are finding growth and profitability difficult, but strategies now need to reflect positioning for recovery rather than focussing on survival.
The October ANZ Business Outlook Survey had heartening trends. Business Confidence jumped from 50 in September to 58 in October. In May it was 37. The net percent of businesses expecting to raise prices fell from 46 per cent to 44 per cent. One-year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 2.75 per cent.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) Trade and Economic Update for Q1 2025, has more positive news. Exports rose 7.4 per cent in the year to March 2025, with further signals that this growth is accelerating. This is important because it will help fuel economic growth and it continues to narrow our trade deficit, driven by kiwifruit, dairy, meat and travel.
Travel revenue has now reached pre-Covid levels. Exports to the EU and UK surged by 22.6 per cent and 21.2 per cent respectively, likely reflecting the opportunities from recent Free Trade Agreements, and the United States announced the removal of additional tariffs on a range of NZ agricultural products. Both the IMF and the OECD are forecasting low to moderate growth in the NZ economy in 2026, and to back that up, local clients are reporting increased activity and opportunities, especially in large projects, due to start in early to mid 2026.
What does all this mean for our businesses? That there is light at the end of the tunnel. This economic data is the spark for an increase in confidence, surely causing our customers’ wallets to shrug off the moths and glue. When customers start to spend, businesses can grow. But where else have you read this positive stuff? When will our main news channels spread the other side of the story? I’m in no way being political, but sometimes I wonder! Let’s all enjoy a positive Christmas and 2026.
