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Hibiscus Coast residents are being urged to prepare for a hotter, drier summer, with forecasters warning a developing “super El Niño” could bring weeks of little rain, dry conditions and increased fire risk across the region.
Earth Sciences NZ chief scientist for weather and seasonal forecasting Chris Brandolino says Aucklanders may begin noticing changes in weather patterns as early as September, while the effects build over the coming month and increase into summer. However, conditions past December are difficult to forecast this far out, he says.
“A lot of the time, it isn’t one big weather event. Maybe after the first week or two, the water-reliant sectors might start to notice, but after three or four weeks, the grass might get a little brown and water tanks might start to run low.”
For the Hibiscus Coast, prolonged dry spells affect water tanks and gardens, while increasing the risk of scrub and bush fires.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that increases the likelihood of warmer, drier weather across northern New Zealand. Brandolino describes it as “steering the wheel of Mother Nature’s car”, where even a small twitch can send weather patterns in a different direction.
“Every El Niño is different, but we can see themes from previous years to predict what could happen. Typically, there’s less rain in the east, with a windier-than-normal spring,” he said.
Super El Niño events typically occur about every 15 years, with the strongest events seen in 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015. The most recent, in 2015–16, contributed to a warmer-than-average summer across the Auckland region, though Brandolino says this year’s event could rival or exceed previous records in intensity.
The warning comes after New Zealand experienced its hottest June on record since 1909, adding to concerns about warmer-than-average conditions heading into summer.
Brandolino says El Niño is only one factor influencing New Zealand’s weather, and encourages residents to stay prepared.
“It’s important to stay on top of the forecast because you never know when things might change,” he said.
“The best thing to do is make a plan, stay on top of the long-range and short-range forecasts, and be aware of the potential fire risks.”
