Sign In / Register
Rodney residents are being urged to prepare for a hotter, drier summer, with forecasters warning a developing “super El Niño” could bring weeks of little rain, dry conditions and increased fire risk across the region.
Earth Sciences NZ chief scientist for weather and seasonal forecasting Chris Brandolino says Aucklanders may begin noticing changes in weather patterns as early as next month, while the effects build over the coming month and increase into summer.
However, conditions past December are difficult to forecast this far out, he says. “A lot of the time, it isn’t one big weather event. Maybe after the first week or two, the water-reliant sectors might start to notice, but after three or four weeks, the grass might get a little brown and water tanks might start to run low.”
Prolonged dry spells deplete water tanks and affect gardens, while increasing the risk of scrub and bush fires.
Back in the exceptionally dry 2020, Rodney residents faced long waits for water deliveries, with some running dry before their tanks could be topped up despite suppliers working extended hours.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that increases the likelihood of warmer, drier weather across northern New Zealand. Brandolino describes it as “steering the wheel of Mother Nature’s car”, where even a small twitch can send weather patterns in a different direction.
“Every El Niño is different, but we can see themes from previous years to predict what could happen. Typically, there’s less rain in the east, with a windier-than-normal spring,” he said.
Super El Niño events typically occur about every 15 years, with the strongest events seen in 1972, 1982, 1991, 1997 and 2015.
The most recent, in 2015–16, contributed to a warmer-than-average summer across the Auckland region, though Brandolino says this year’s event could rival or exceed previous records in intensity.
