Science – Pathway out of Covid?

The most common question posed by the public about the Covid pandemic is this: when and how will it end? An increasing number of international experts are asking an important and related question: Is the Omicron variant a pathway out of the pandemic? It is too early to give a definitive answer to these questions because the flow of data emerging from Omicron across various countries experiencing the variant is still preliminary. However, some early indications are promising.

This new variant includes 50 mutations or genetic changes, some of which help the virus to spread more quickly, while others help the virus to evade antibodies. Regarding the transmission or contagiousness of Omicron (as observed in overseas countries impacted so far), new cases have been found to double every two to four days, which is much faster than the Delta variant. Some experts even say that Omicron is as contagious as measles.

How much does the Pfizer vaccine protect against an Omicron infection? Full Pfizer vaccination plus a booster provides strong protection against Omicron. For example, two doses of Pfizer vaccine reduce hospitalisation rates caused by Omicron by 70 per cent. Although two doses without a booster is less protective, it is still far safer than being unvaccinated. How bad will a Covid case caused by Omicron be? The good news is that a lower percentage of Omicron infections are leading to hospitalisation when compared to Delta infections. Overall, the key point is that Omicron is much more transmissible, but significantly less lethal than Delta. Current New South Wales experience indicates that the increase in new cases and the associated number of hospitalisation cases arising from Omicron is rising rapidly. However, closer examination of this NSW hospitalisation data, following the surge in Omicron cases, indicates that only 5.3 per cent involve ICU and 2.2 per cent involve ICU ventilation. Omicron, while very contagious, is not making many patients seriously ill.

The promising aspect of these observations is that in an increasing number of Omicron-affected countries, the rapid rise in new cases was followed by a relatively rapid decline. Scotland, England, Portugal, South Africa and others have reported such rapid passing of the Omicron wave. This has raised the possibility that Omicron is a pathway to the end of the pandemic. The virus is a tiny entity that seeks to live forever by reproducing itself. When reproducing itself, it can adjust its DNA genetics, firstly to achieve greater capacity to bind to human receptor cells and, secondly, to penetrate and attack the human respiratory system.

It is now possible that these ongoing adjustments (mutations) have led to a virus variant (Omicron) that is strongly bonding to human receptor cells and hence very contagious, but less able to damage the human host. Perhaps the next variant after Omicron will be even further down this path of being more transmissible but less lethal. At some stage in this evolutionary pathway, the Covid virus will resemble influenza. It will be contracted by almost everyone in the community but will cause only mild symptoms, which may or may not require annual vaccination.

Scientists refer to this endgame as being an “endemic virus”, something which the community accepts as an enduring and tolerable part of its normal environment.