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Northlanders can expect a warmer, drier and windier spring in the coming months, with a strengthening El Niño set to have a growing influence on the weather as spring settles in.
Earth Sciences New Zealand (ESNZ) seasonal climate outlook for September to November gives Northland a 50 per cent chance of above-average temperatures and just a 15 per cent chance of above-normal rainfall for the spring season.
The forecast follows a cold and dry winter, which may leave some areas more vulnerable to dry conditions as temperatures rise.
ESNZ reports that more frequent dry spells and increased drying of soils and vegetation could create challenges for farmers and sectors reliant on water during spring.
The forecast follows the strengthening of El Niño in the tropical Pacific.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulation across the tropical Pacific and may bring stronger or more frequent westerly winds to New Zealand, which can result in drier conditions.
ESNZ says the current El Niño has strengthened considerably since mid-winter. Its effects on New Zealand’s weather are beginning to be felt and could peak in late spring or early summer as one of the strongest El Niño events in recent history.
While changeable conditions are not unusual during spring, ESNZ reports that it is expected to be more pronounced this year, with the greatest risk of widespread unsettled weather during mid-to-late spring.
Despite the overall warmer outlook, ESNZ cautions that occasional cold outbreaks are still likely, meaning it’s not time to pack away the winter woollies just yet.
