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The emissions from petrol or diesel vehicles are currently responsible for about 10 per cent of the carbon dioxide being added to the atmosphere. The transition of vehicles from petrol or diesel to hybrids, and then to full electric vehicles, is in full swing internationally, but especially in Scandinavian countries. The uptake in EVs in Norway has reached 70 per cent. This transition is sufficiently advanced in these leading countries that their governments are having to deal with the expectations of a post-combustion world. One example is that EV development has seen the production of expensive vehicles that are often too expensive for the average citizen.
Elsewhere in the world, including Europe, the public view cars in a more functional and inexpensive way. This dichotomy has resulted in very different market strategies for cars in Asia and the EU on one hand, and in the USA on the other. China and India have been intent on developing less expensive cars that are designed to suit ordinary citizens in large cities. Intrinsically, EVs are much simpler devices than internal combustion cars because they have 100 times fewer moving parts and, hence, should be much cheaper to maintain and run. This is the reason that the new wave of inexpensive EVs will appear firstly in Europe, and then later in the USA. The cheapest EVs internationally at present are the BYD Seagull (US$10,000 new in China), Tata Tiago (US$12,000 in India) and in the USA, the Chevrolet Bolt (US$27,495). These cheap EVs are intended to be family cars used for urban travel in large cities.
The development of more compact battery technologies with longer range and greater safety characteristics is the subject of massive research and development by all major car manufacturers.
Toyota promises that its next version of batteries will meet these criteria and provide a range of up to about 1500kms within three years. This is about twice the average range (700kms) of typical existing combustion cars.
Over the next decade or so, two major innovations will appear that will transform conventional vehicle transport. Firstly, e-roads will incorporate ground-level power supply through conductive rails or inductive coils embedded in the road. They will be able to charge all EVs as they travel and when they stop. This will be the end of range anxiety. Secondly, autonomous (driverless) vehicles are expected to appear around 2035, and these will have several important consequences, including a significant switch from private to public ownership.
Imagine that in about 2036, you hop into your car to go to work. The autonomous car will know, given it is a Monday, that you will want to travel to your workplace (unless you tell it otherwise) and will take you there, while you plan your tasks at work for the day ahead. Once it has delivered you to your workplace, it knows that it will not be required for several hours and so it will return home to park until office closing time, when it will pick you up and drive you home.
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