Science – You can count on statistics

One of the fields of science that is very applicable across many sectors is statistics. When I am asked by young people about the more employable and useful major subjects for a degree, statistics is almost always a candidate. For older people who are seeking clarity about future global crises, statistics is very valuable. In a world in which a minority of people ignore science and construct their own reality, statistics is essential.

I was once asked to comment on a claim by a politician that 1400 people had cardiac problems following covid vaccination and, therefore, the vaccine should be withdrawn. I asked how many people were surveyed to establish that figure. The answer according to respected sources (US NIH) is about 90,000 people surveyed. Therefore, only 1.62% of those surveyed had myocarditis problems following vaccinations. This proportion is enough for the medical profession to monitor these people seriously, but not enough to discard the life-saving advantages of the vaccinations.

Another example of the value of statistics is defining the proportion of climate deniers. In Australia (and, very likely, NZ) the proportion of the population that claim the climate is not changing is five percent and the proportion that consider that the climate is changing, but not caused by humans, is nine percent This is important data as it reveals that 95% of the population are convinced that climate change is real and therefore, there is little point in seeking to persuade the remaining climate deniers that they are mistaken. However, it does indicate that nine percent of the population do not understand that the abrupt rise in greenhouse emissions started around 1850 when the use of coal in steam engines and other machines had increased by a factor of 10, compared to a century earlier. It has been exacerbated by the increased use of oil and gas in combustion vehicles since 1900. Since 2020, when the pandemic lockdowns temporarily reduced the use of cars and trucks, the amount of carbon emissions decreased significantly (by -17%, according to a study in the respected journal Nature). This is direct evidence that human activities do generate the carbon emissions that cause climate change. It refutes the claim by the nine percent that climate warming is not due to human activities.

Here are some other examples of important statistical data:

• The population of the planet will cease growing about 2100 with the population of China, Japan and several other countries declining and the population of Africa increasing.

• The temperature beyond which the human body cannot survive for a long period depends on humidity, but at 100% humidity this may be as low as 31C (Penn State University, 2022).

• A global study shows that there has been a 70% decline in animal species over the last 50 years, and that at present 48% of species are declining, 49% are stable and only three percent are rising.

Statistics provides us all with clarity as we and our children seek to deal with the major threats to the planet over the coming century.